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technology forecasting

 

Methods of Technology Forecasting

Some of the popular methods used for technology forecasting are utilizing growth curves, extrapolation, and analysis through analogies, Delphi method, morphological models and various kinds of diagrammatic tools. An overview of the various methods used for technological forecasting is mentioned below.

  • Using trend and growth curves- Growth is commonly used in technology forecasting. They are sometimes combined with trend curves as well. By generating successive growth curves for each level of technology, a trend curve can be generated which can predict better technological approaches. Combining growth and trend curves allow forecasters to make conclusive claims about the future applications of technology. The insight gained by combining the two methods is far greater than that gained through growth curves alone.
     
  • Identifying recurring deviations- Another combined method of predicting technological processes is through the use of trend curves and analogies. Quite often deviations and scattered data sets in trend curves are dismissed and attributed to uncontrollable factors. If continuous and persistent deviations are observed for a significant period of time, then such deviations must be noted down. Once such deviations have been identified, analogies can be used to analyze these deviations and draw insights from them. The idea of combining analogies with trend curves is to predict such deviations in the future. It is important to determine the exact boundaries of these analogies, the deviations that are identified must satisfy all the conditions that have been set for the analogy.

Such combination methods are used to make it easy for forecasters to predict such technologies. While a single method may have its blind spots and shortcomings, by combining multiple analytical techniques like these, one can try to make up the deficiencies of one method with the strengths of another.